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How's the Market?

Jacksonville Housing Market


Published on MAY 11, 2024 by ROB HASTINGS

CATEGORIES: Real Estate News | Seller Resources | Buyer Resources

jacksonville housing market


Jacksonville Home Prices and Trends

The housing market in Jacksonville, FL showed improvement again in several important metrics in April 2024 as the spring market is now in full swing.

But as sticky inflation persists, and interest rates remain elevated, other forward-looking metrics point to some market cooling as we approach the summer months.

The median sales price increased from $373,890 in March 2024 to $380,000 in April 2024. For context, the median sales price is up 8.6% year over year, and this figure of $380,000 ties the previous record for median sales price that was set in July of 2022. In other words, current real estate prices are the highest they have ever been in Northeast Florida.

Sellers also saw their percent received of list prices (97.8%) continue to increase in April 2024. At the same time, 13.1% of all properties sold over their list prices. This particular datapoint shows that house bidding wars are still occurring, and buyers are still willing to pay top dollar for good properties.

Months of inventory (absorption rate) did increase from 3.2 months in March 2024 to 3.5 months in April of 2024 as Sellers took advantage of the spring market to list their homes. A normally balanced market is 6 months of inventory, meaning that if no other homes were to come on the market, it would take 6 months for the current inventory to sell. Therefore, the market is maintaining a seller's market.

While the aforementioned metrics show market strength, a few forward-looking metrics point to some market cooling as summer approaches (assuming broader economic conditions remain unchanged). Pending sales dropped 28.1% from March 2024, and active inventory increased 7.5% in the same time period. It will be interesting to see how these two metrics are reflected in next month's data.

Jacksonville Housing Market Forecast 2024

The forecast for Jacksonville's housing market is largely dependent on the broader economic picture and the Federal Reserve's ability to curb and maintain inflation.

Why does inflation matter for the housing market?

The Federal Reserve sets the Federal Funds Rate; this is the rate that commercial banks borrow and lend their reserves to each other overnight. The Federal Reserve adjusts this rate based on economic readings that show indications of inflation, recession, or other things that can affect sustainable economic growth. Although indirectly, the Federal Funds Rate influences short-term interest rates, including mortgage interest rates, as lenders frequently set their rates based on the prime lending rate - a rate that is also affected by the Federal Funds Rate.

Bottom line, until the Federal Reserve sees consistent economic data that inflation is fully under control, they will maintain an elevated Federal Funds Rate, thereby influencing elevated mortgage interest rates and likely keeping many homebuyers on the sidelines.

Inflation has fallen from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.4% in April 2024. Good news, right?

Not so fast...

The Federal Reserve has a target of an inflation rate near 2%, and this final mile to get there has proved the most difficult. This has become known as "sticky inflation," and it's worrying markets that interest rates will stay higher for longer.

Until additional economic data in the coming weeks (most notably, the next CPI release on May 15) shows progress on inflation, short-term pressure on the housing market will appear in metrics as noted above such as drops in pending sales and higher inventory.

At the same time, if and when the Federal Reserve is able to trim rates, housing markets nationally, including Jacksonville, will benefit from the lower rates and likely resume promising growth in the back half of 2024 and into 2025.

Should I buy a house now or wait until 2025?

Buyers who decided to wait out the market for a housing market crash have (so far) not been rewarded for their decision as current prices (i.e., median sales price) are at record levels, tying the previous record for median sales price set in July 2022. Meanwhile, interest rates have more than doubled, compounding the financial impact of such a decision.

While inventory of homes has certainly increased, this metric will remain interesting to watch in the Jacksonville housing market as sellers who purchased or refinanced at a 2.5% to 4% interest rate will hold on to their homes longer since the cost for a new mortgage will be an interest rate that is more than doubled.

With the Southeast part of the United States continuing to see strong demand and with a shortage of homes due to sellers staying in their current homes longer at lower interest rates, it's possible that continuing to wait to buy a home could end up costing buyers more.

Moreover, if and when interest rates decrease further, buyer demand will only increase, leading to higher prices as more buyers enter a housing market with already low inventory.

Bottom line, if you find your dream home now, you may consider buying it. If rates fall once the Federal Reserve fully has inflation under control, you will likely have an opportunity to refinance later.


Jacksonville Housing Market Data

Data are for single-family homes, condos, and townhomes in the counties of Duval, Nassau, St. Johns, and Clay.


April 2024 Yearly Change Monthly Change
$380,000

Median Sales Price
8.6%

1.7%

2,236

Closed Sales
-3.0%

-4.6

36

Median Days On Market
-6.6%

0.1%

97.8%

List Price Received
0.1%

0.1%

13.1%

Closed Over List Price
-2.2%

6.7%

69.00

Home Affordability Index
-10.4%

0.1%

$214

Price Per Sq Ft
4.4%

1.9%

1,736

Pending Sales
-31.0%

-28.1%

4,418

New Listings
54.7%

3.2%

7,898

Active Inventory
71.3%

7.5%

3.5

Absorption Rate
76.7%

12.7%



Northeast Florida Housing Market Trends

Data are for single-family homes, condos, and townhomes in the counties of Duval, Nassau, St. Johns, and Clay.

Median Sales Price

Days on Market

Percent Sold to List Price

Absorption Rate

Data Source: Northeast Florida Association of Realtors.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

rob hastings

Rob Hastings is a top-producing real estate agent in Jacksonville, Florida and helps buyers, sellers, and investors of homes and property throughout all of Northeast Florida. He works with his wife Nancy as a husband-and wife-team with Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners. When not helping his clients navigate the real estate process, Rob enjoys working on old Corvettes and playing music (guitar and piano). A U.S. Naval Academy graduate and former Naval Officer, he also loves boating and simply spending time on the water.