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How's the Market?

Jacksonville Housing Market


Published on FEBRUARY 11, 2024 by ROB HASTINGS

CATEGORIES: Real Estate News | Seller Resources | Buyer Resources

jacksonville housing market


Jacksonville Home Prices and Trends

The housing market metrics in Jacksonville, FL showed significant weakening in January 2024 in comparison to one month prior.

The question is now: Was this weakening part of the seasonality that traditionally affects data and metrics at the start of each calendar year, or is this significant weakening the start of a milestone market change?

Closed sales dropped 28.6% from December 2023 and were also down 9.6% year over year. Median days on market continued to rise, increasing from 48 days in December 2023 to 55 days in January 2024 for single family homes, condos, and townhomes.

Moreover, months of inventory (absorption rate) increased from 3.5 months in December 2023 to 5.5 months in January 2024. A normally balanced market is 6 months of inventory, meaning that if no other homes were to come on the market, it would take 6 months for the current inventory to sell. Therefore, while 5.5 months of inventory is still considered a seller's market, this drastic jump in inventory in Jacksonville and North Florida is concerning and will be a strong focus of next month's data to determine if this large increase was due to seasonality or the start of a bigger issue.

The median sales price also showed significant weakness, going from $375,000 in December 2023 to $355,000 in January 2024. Until the release of these data, housing prices have remained relatively stable for the past 6 months. Still, for context, the median sales price is up 4.4% year over year.

Sellers are also seeing their percent received of list prices (96.9%) decrease in January 2024 in comparison to December 2023. At the same time, 10.1% of all properties sold over their list prices in the first month of the year. This particular datapoint shows that buyers are still willing to pay top dollar for good properties that are priced appropriately.

Jacksonville Housing Market Forecast 2024

The forecast for Jacksonville's housing market is largely dependent on the broader economic picture, but recent economic data and comments from the Federal Reserve have indicated that the worst may now be behind us.

Inflation has fallen from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.5% in January 2024, but inflation still exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The market has priced in that further interest rate hikes are off the table, and the market is now waiting for the Federal Reserve to indicate possible tightening.

However, January's CPI of 3.5%, which is an increase of 0.1% from December 2023, shows that the path ahead will still be filled with bumps. Likewise, the labor market continues to remain strong, and recent jobs reports supporting this strength only give the Federal Reserve reason to delay any tightening.

According to Mortgage News Daily's Rate Survey, rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage peaked on October 16, 2023 at 7.94%. As of February 11, 2024, rates have fallen to 6.98%. Lower interest rates provide more purchasing power for borrowers and restore confidence for buyers in the market.

The market is expecting that the Federal Reserve will start to trim rates possibly in the spring of 2024. However, until this timing becomes clearer with additional economic data in the coming months, the uncertainty and fluctuations in important economic readings may increase short-term pressure on the housing market.

At the same time, if and when the broader economy improves in 2024 while the Federal Reserve is able to trim rates, housing markets nationally, including Jacksonville, will benefit from the lower rates and likely resume promising growth in the back half of 2024 and into 2025.

Should I buy a house now or wait until 2025?

Buyers who decided to wait out the market for a housing market crash have (so far) not been rewarded for their decision as current prices (i.e., median sales price) are only slightly lower than their peak in July 2022. Meanwhile, interest rates have more than doubled, compounding the financial impact of such a decision.

While inventory substantially increased in January 2024, inventory of homes entering the spring market will likely continue to be a problem in the Jacksonville housing market as sellers who purchased or refinanced at a 2.5% to 4% interest rate will hold on to their homes longer since the cost for a new mortgage will be an interest rate that is more than doubled.

With the Southeast part of the United States continuing to see strong demand and with a shortage of homes due to sellers staying in their current homes longer at lower interest rates, it's possible that continuing to wait to buy a home could end up costing buyers more.

Moreover, if and when interest rates decrease further, buyer demand will only increase, leading to higher prices as more buyers enter a housing market with already low inventory.

Bottom line, if you find your dream home now, you may consider buying it. If rates fall after the Federal Reserve tightens its monetary policy, you will likely have an opportunity to refinance later.


Jacksonville Housing Market Data

Data are for single-family homes, condos, and townhomes in the counties of Duval, Nassau, St. Johns, and Clay.


January 2024 Yearly Change Monthly Change
$355,000

Median Sales Price
4.4%

-4.6%

1,302

Closed Sales
-9.6%

-28.6%

52

Median Days On Market
-11.9%

13.0%

96.9%

List Price Received
-0.1%

-0.6%

10.1%

Closed Over List Price
9.8%

-4.5%

74.0

Home Affordability Index
-7.5%

5.7%

$204

Price Per Sq Ft
0.5%

-2.9%

1,554

Pending Sales
-23.6%

-6.3%

3,545

New Listings
37.4%

58.5%

6,919

Active Inventory
39.5%

23.8%

5.3

Absorption Rate
54.3%

73.3%



Northeast Florida Housing Market Trends

Data are for single-family homes, condos, and townhomes in the counties of Duval, Nassau, St. Johns, and Clay.

Median Sales Price

Days on Market

Percent Sold to List Price

Absorption Rate

Data Source: Northeast Florida Association of Realtors.


ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

rob hastings

Rob Hastings is a top-producing real estate agent in Jacksonville, Florida and helps buyers, sellers, and investors of homes and property throughout all of Northeast Florida. He works with his wife Nancy as a husband-and wife-team with Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners. When not helping his clients navigate the real estate process, Rob enjoys working on old Corvettes and playing music (guitar and piano). A U.S. Naval Academy graduate and former Naval Officer, he also loves boating and simply spending time on the water.