Jacksonville Housing Market

Jacksonville Home Prices and Trends

The housing market in Jacksonville, FL showed showed some softening according to the data and metrics in August 2023, but low inventory of housing is continuing to support the overall market.

Pending sales decreased 11.7% from August 2023, and the median sales dropped 1.6% in the same period to $368,990. This is the first decrease in the median sales price since March 2023.

However, closed sales of single-family homes, townhomes, and condos in Northeast Florida's four primary counties (Duval, Nassau, Clay, and St. Johns County) increased 1.4% from July 2023, and the months of inventory (absorption rate) decreased from 2.7 months in July 2023 to 2.6 months in August 2023. A normally balanced market is 6 months of inventory. Therefore, Jacksonville and North Florida is still in a strong seller's market.

Meanwhile, the median days on market largely remained unchanged, decreasing from 33 days in July 2023 to 32 days in August 2023 for single family homes, condos, and townhomes. This represents a stabilizing trend since this metric reached a peak of 54 days on market in January 2023.

Sellers saw the percent received of their list prices (97.6%) decrease 0.3% from July 2023. At the same time, 13.7% of all properties sold over their list prices.

Jacksonville Housing Market Forecast 2023

While Jacksonville's housing market has certainly cooled off from the hyper activity seen in 2021 and the first half of 2022, the market still remains strong and is continuing to show resilience in several important metrics (notably median sales price).

The forecast for Jacksonville's housing market is largely dependent on the broader economic picture. While inflation has fallen from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% in July 2023, inflation still exceeds the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The market will be closely monitoring the Federal Reserve to see if further interest rate hikes are possible before the end of the year or if the Fed pauses or ceases its rate hikes.

But if the broader economy improves in 2024 while the Federal Reserve is able to trim rates, housing markets nationally, including Jacksonville, will benefit from the lower rates and likely resume promising growth in 2024.

Should I buy a house now or wait until 2024?

Buyers who decided to wait out the market for a housing market crash have (so far) not been rewarded for their decision as current prices (i.e., median sales price) are only slightly lower than their peak in July 2022. Meanwhile, interest rates have more than doubled, compounding the financial impact of such a decision.

Low inventory of homes will continue to be a problem in the Jacksonville housing market as sellers who purchased or refinanced at a 2.5% to 4% interest rate will hold on to their homes longer since the cost for a new mortgage will be an interest rate that is more than doubled.

With the Southeast part of the United States continuing to see strong demand and with a shortage of homes due to sellers staying in their current homes longer at lower interest rates, it's possible that continuing to wait to buy a home could end up costing buyers more.

Moreover, if and when interest rates decrease, buyer demand will only increase, leading to higher prices as more buyers enter a housing market with already low inventory.

Bottom line, if you find your dream home now, you may consider buying it. If rates fall after inflation is fully under control, you will likely have an opportunity to refinance later.

Jacksonville Housing Market Data

Northeast Florida Housing Market Trends

Data Source: Northeast Florida Association of Realtors.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Rob Hastings is a top-producing real estate agent in Jacksonville, Florida and helps buyers, sellers, and investors of homes and property throughout all of Northeast Florida. He works with his wife Nancy as a husband-and wife-team with Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners. When not helping his clients navigate the real estate process, Rob enjoys working on old Corvettes and playing music (guitar and piano). A U.S. Naval Academy graduate and former Naval Officer, he also loves boating and simply spending time on the water.