Jacksonville Housing Market

Jacksonville Home Prices and Trends

The housing market in Jacksonville, FL lost a lot of strength based on the latest real market data from the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors. Nearly every metric showed a weakening housing market.

The question is now as the Federal Reserve intends to cut interest rates, will these metrics reverse course as the housing market enters the fall season?

The median sales price fell 5.3% from July 2024, but this figure of $360,000 is only 1.9% less than the median sales price of August 2023. In other words, while the median sales price fell considerably since the previous month, this change isn't as drastic when viewed in the broader context.

In fact, Sellers saw their percent received of list prices (97.3%) remain relatively stable in August 2024. At the same time, 10.6% of all properties still sold over their list prices. This particular datapoint shows that house bidding wars are still occurring, and buyers are still willing to pay top dollar for good properties.

Months of inventory (absorption rate) increased from 4.4 months in July 2024 to 4.5 months in May 2024. This slight increase can be expected as seasonality of the housing market always contributes to higher inventory at the end of summer compared to the few months prior. A normally balanced market is 6 months of inventory, meaning that if no other homes were to come on the market, it would take 6 months for the current inventory to sell. Therefore, despite this rise in inventory, the market is maintaining a seller's market.

A few forward-looking metrics point to some further market cooling (assuming broader economic conditions remain unchanged). Pending sales dropped 28.7% from July 2024, and active inventory increased 3.2% in the same time period.

Jacksonville Housing Market Forecast 2024

The forecast for Jacksonville's housing market is largely dependent on the broader economic picture and the Federal Reserve's ability to effectively execute monetary policy in the coming months.

The Federal Reserve sets the Federal Funds Rate; this is the rate that commercial banks borrow and lend their reserves to each other overnight. The Federal Reserve adjusts this rate based on economic readings that show indications of inflation, recession, or other things that can affect sustainable economic growth. Although indirectly, the Federal Funds Rate influences short-term interest rates, including mortgage interest rates, as lenders frequently set their rates based on the prime lending rate - a rate that is also affected by the Federal Funds Rate.

Markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September 2024. If and when the Federal Reserve is able to trim rates, housing markets nationally, including Jacksonville, will benefit from the lower rates and likely resume promising growth in the back half of 2024 and into 2025 as buyers who have been on the sidelines may look to re-enter the housing market.

Should I buy a house now or wait until 2025?

Buyers who decided to wait out the market for a housing market crash have (so far) not been rewarded for their decision. The chance for a crash now, with inflation mostly under control and the Federal Reserve on the cusp of cutting rates, is unlikely.

Moreover, if and when interest rates decrease further, buyer demand will only increase, leading to higher prices as more buyers enter a housing market that is still technically a Seller's market.

Bottom line, if you find your dream home now, you may consider buying it. If rates continue to fall as the Federal Reserve makes multiple rate cuts, you will likely have an opportunity to refinance later. Best of all, you will likely gain some quick equity in your home as buyers return to the market in the next 12-18 months and drive up prices.

Jacksonville Housing Market Data

Northeast Florida Housing Market Trends

Data Source: Northeast Florida Association of Realtors.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Rob Hastings is a top-producing real estate agent in Jacksonville, Florida and helps buyers, sellers, and investors of homes and property throughout all of Northeast Florida. He works with his wife Nancy as a husband-and wife-team with Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners. When not helping his clients navigate the real estate process, Rob enjoys working on old Corvettes and playing music (guitar and piano). A U.S. Naval Academy graduate and former Naval Officer, he also loves boating and simply spending time on the water.