Jacksonville Housing Market

Jacksonville Home Prices and Trends

The latest analysis for Jacksonville's housing market of single-family homes, condos, and townhomes in Duval, Nassau, St. Johns, and Clay counties shows a market that’s cooler, slower, and more negotiable.

Prices have softened a bit. The median sales price is $351,250 and the data indicates it’s down modestly vs. last year (about -1.1% vs. January 2025). The mis metric is also down vs. the prior month (shown as -4.7%). The average price per square foot is $195.

Demand is lower than a year ago. Closed sales for January 2026 are 1,398 and are shown as down vs. January 2025 (-7.6%). Pending sales are 1,334, and the data show a larger decline (notably -24.1% on one comparison line), which is consistent with buyers being more rate-sensitive and selective.

Supply is meaningfully higher, which changes negotiations. Active inventory is 8,135, and months of supply is 6.1 months. That’s closer to a “balanced” market than the ultra-tight conditions we saw about 5 years ago, and it typically results in more price reductions and more buyer leverage.

Homes are taking longer to sell. The median days on market is 54 days. Sellers are receiving about 96.8% of list price, a sign that pricing/condition matter more now than they did during bidding war years.

Bottom line: Jacksonville is still moving, but it’s not a “name-your-price” seller’s market. Buyers have time, options, and negotiating power while sellers need precision (pricing + presentation) to win.

Jacksonville Housing Market Forecast 2026

Jacksonville’s 2026 direction will likely be shaped less by local headlines and more by the “big 3”: mortgage rates, inflation, and Fed policy with inventory staying elevated compared to recent years.

Mortgage rates are likely range bound with mild downside if inflation cooperates. Freddie Mac’s primary mortgage survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate around 6.11% (Feb 5, 2026). If inflation continues easing and the Fed becomes comfortable cutting further, rates could drift lower, but if inflation re-accelerates, rates can stay sticky near (or above) ~6%.

Key backdrops for 2026. Backdrops include the Federal Reserve, inflation, mortgage rate direction, and buyer confidence in order to determine whether this rebalancing continues gently or accelerates.

Inflation is easing, but the last mile matters. Recent data put year-over-year CPI inflation at ~2.7% (Dec 2025). That’s much better than the peak, but for housing, the key is whether inflation keeps cooling without reigniting because that’s what gives the Fed room to reduce rates further.

The Federal Reserve is taking a "cautious, data-driven" 2026 path. The Fed’s target range is currently 3.50% – 3.75%. In the Fed’s December 2025 projections, the median policy-rate projection for end 2026 was about 3.4%. That implies policymakers see some scope for easing over 2026 but not a rapid return to ultra-low rates.

Should I buy or sell a house now or wait until 2027?

For Buyers.

If you’re a buyer, buy now if:

(1) You’ve found a home you’d happily keep 5–7+ years

(2) You can negotiate (today’s stats support this: 96.8% list price received and ~9.1% over-list closings)

(3) You can afford the payment at today’s rates (~6.11%) and you’d refinance later if rates drop

Consider waiting (or renting short-term) if:

(1) Your budget is extremely payment sensitive and you must have a lower rate to qualify comfortably

(2) You’re buying in an area with lots of competing inventory and frequent price cuts (you may get an even better deal later).

For Sellers.

If you’re a seller, sell now if:

(1) You need certainty (job change, lifestyle move, financial reasons)

(2) Your home is turnkey and you can price precisely (days on market is 54 days, so overpricing is punished faster now)

(3) You’re competing in a segment with heavy inventory. With over 8,000 active listings and roughly 6 months of supply, new competition can impact you fast.

Consider waiting until later if:

(1) You don’t need to move and you’re comfortable watching how mortgage rates evolve.

(2) You believe rates may ease in 2026 and increase buyer demand.

(3) Your home would significantly benefit from strategic updates you can complete before listing (paint, landscaping, light remodel, staging, pre-inspection).

Jacksonville Housing Market Data

Northeast Florida Housing Market Trends

Data Source: Northeast Florida Association of Realtors.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Rob Hastings is a top-producing real estate agent in Jacksonville, Florida and helps buyers, sellers, and investors of homes and property throughout all of Northeast Florida. He works with his wife Nancy as a husband-and wife-team with Keller Williams Realty Atlantic Partners. When not helping his clients navigate the real estate process, Rob enjoys working on old Corvettes and playing music (guitar and piano). A U.S. Naval Academy graduate and former Naval Officer, he also loves boating and simply spending time on the water.